Pär ÖsterholmTitle: Professor School/office: Örebro University School of Business
Phone: +46 19 301311
About Pär Österholm
Pär Österholm became a professor of financial economics at Örebro university in 2016. His research interests include macro-finance, forecasting and monetary policy.
Österholm got his PhD in economics at Uppsala University in 2004 and became an associate professor at the same university in 2010. Before he joined Örebro University, he was the division head of GDP analysis at the National Institute of Economic Research. He has also been a visiting researcher at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the International Monetary Fund, and worked as a senior economist at the Riksbank and the National Institute of Economic Research.
- Macro finance
- Monetary policy
Collaborations and assignments
- Council member, Swedish Fiscal Policy Council
- Member of the National Institute of Economic Research's Macroeconomic Council
- Scientific adviser to Kommuninvest
- Affiliated scholar, National Institute of Economic Research
Selected journal publications
Kiss, T., Nguyen, H. and Österholm, P. (2021), "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area", forthcoming in Finance Research Letters.
Kladívko, K. and Österholm, P. (2021), "Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy Is Headed?", Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2021:2, 5-17.
Kladívko, K. and Österholm, P. (2021), "Do Market Participants' Forecasts of Financial Variables Outperform the Random-Walk Benchmark?", Finance Research Letters 40, 101712.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2021), "Anchoring in Surveys of Household Expectations", Economics Letters 198, 109687.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2020), "A Hybrid Time-Varying Parameter Bayesian VAR Analysis of Okun's Law in the United States", Economics Letters 197, 109622.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2020), "Heterogeneity in Households' Expectations of Housing Prices – Evidence from Micro Data", Journal of Housing Economics 50, 101731.
Kiss, T. and Österholm, P. (2020), "Fat Tails in Leading Indicators", Economics Letters 193, 109317.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2020), "The Relation between the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread and the Real Economy: Stable or Time-Varying?", Economics Letters 186, 108883.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2020), "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Phillips Curve", Empirical Economics 59 (6), 2573-2612.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2019), "A Micro-Data Analysis of Households’ Expectations of Mortgage Rates”, Economics Letters 185, 108693.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2019), "Volatilities, Drifts and the Relation between Treasury Yields and the Corporate Bond Yield Spread in Australia", Finance Research Letters 30, 378-384.
Österholm, P. (2018), "The Relation between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads in Australia - Evidence from VARs", Finance Research Letters 24, 186-192.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2017), "Households' Mortgage-Rate Expectations: More Realistic than at First Glance?", Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2017:2, 57-64.
Gustafsson, P., Stockhammar, P. and Österholm, P. (2016), "Macroeconomic Effects of a Decline in Housing Prices in Sweden", Journal of Policy Modeling 38 (2), 242-255.
Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2014), "Does the Labor-Income Process Contain a Unit Root? Evidence from Individual Specific Time Series", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 47, 152-167.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2012), "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence", International Journal of Central Banking 8 (3), 55-86.
Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2012), "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data", Economics Letters 116 (3), 408-410.
Österholm, P. (2012), "The Limited Usefulness of Macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when Forecasting the Probability of a US Recession", Journal of Macroeconomics 34 (1), 76-86.
Dale, S., Orphanides, A. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction", International Journal of Central Banking 7 (2), 3-39.
Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Does Money Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs", Economic Record 87 (276), 45-60.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2010), "Forecasting Inflation in an Inflation Targeting Regime: A Case for Informative Steady-State Priors", International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2), 248-264.
Österholm, P. (2010), "The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis", Applied Financial Economics 20 (4), 265-274.
Österholm, P. (2009), "Incorporating Judgment in Fan Charts", Scandinavian Journal of Economics 111 (2), 387-415.
Beechey, M., Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2009), "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis when Interest Rates Are Near Integrated", Journal of Banking and Finance 33 (5), 934-943.
Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2009), "Does Money Still Matter for U.S. Output?", Economics Letters 102 (3), 143-146.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2008), "A Bayesian VAR with Informative Steady-State Priors for the Australian Economy", Economic Record 84 (267), 449-465.
Österholm, P. and Zettelmeyer, J. (2008), "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America", IMF Staff Papers 55 (4), 595-623.
Österholm, P. (2008), "Can Forecasting Performance Be Improved by Considering the Steady State? An Application to Swedish Inflation and Interest Rate", Journal of Forecasting 27 (1), 41-51.
Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2006), "The Informational Value of Unemployment Statistics: A Note on the Time Series Properties of Participation Rates", Economics Letters 92 (3), 428-433.