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Pär Österholm

Title: Professor School/office: Örebro University School of Business


Phone: +46 19 301311

Room: N4007

Pär Österholm

Research Subject

Research environments

About Pär Österholm

Pär Österholm became a professor of financial economics at Örebro university in 2016. His research interests include macro-finance, forecasting and monetary policy. Presently, he is studing the effects of unconventional monetary policy on interest rate markets.

Österholm got his PhD in economis at Uppsala University in 2004 and became an associate professor at the same university in 2010. Before he joined Örebro University, he was the division head of GDP analysis at the National Institute of Economic Research. He has also been a visiting researcher at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the International Monetary Fund, and worked as a senior economist at the Riksbank and the National Institute of Economic Research.


Research interests

  • Macro finance
  • Forecasting
  • Monetary policy



  • Macroeconomic forecasting


Collaborations and assignments

  • Council member, Swedish Fiscal Policy Council
  • Scientific adviser to Kommuninvest
  • Member of the Ministry of Finance's reference group for the scenario appendix of The Medium Term Survey of the Swedish Economy
  • Member of the Swedish National Audit Office's reference group for the assessment of the quality of national accounts statistics
  • Member of Statistic Sweden's reference group for developing a flash estimate of GDP


Curriculum vitae

PDF here


Selected publications in scientific journals

Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2019), "A Micro-Data Analysis of Households’ Expectations of Mortgage Rates”, forthcoming in Economics Letters.

Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2019), "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Phillips Curve", forthcoming in Empirical Economics.

Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2019), "Volatilities, Drifts and the Relation between Treasury Yields and the Corporate Bond Yield Spread in Australia", Finance Research Letters 30, 378-384.

Österholm, P. (2018), "The Relation between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads in Australia - Evidence from VARs", Finance Research Letters 24, 186-192.

Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2017), "Households' Mortgage-Rate Expectations: More Realistic than at First Glance?", Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2017:2, 57-64.

Gustafsson, P., Stockhammar, P. and Österholm, P. (2016), "Macroeconomic Effects of a Decline in Housing Prices in Sweden", Journal of Policy Modeling 38 (2), 242-255.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2014), "Does the Labor-Income Process Contain a Unit Root? Evidence from Individual Specific Time Series", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 47, 152-167.

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2012), "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence", International Journal of Central Banking 8 (3), 55-86.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2012), "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data", Economics Letters 116 (3), 408-410.

Österholm, P. (2012), "The Limited Usefulness of Macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when Forecasting the Probability of a US Recession", Journal of Macroeconomics 34 (1), 76-86.

Dale, S., Orphanides, A. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction", International Journal of Central Banking 7 (2), 3-39.

Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Does Money Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs", Economic Record 87 (276), 45-60.

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2010), "Forecasting Inflation in an Inflation Targeting Regime: A Case for Informative Steady-State Priors", International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2), 248-264.

Österholm, P. (2010), "The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis", Applied Financial Economics 20 (4), 265-274.

Österholm, P. (2009), "Incorporating Judgment in Fan Charts", Scandinavian Journal of Economics 111 (2), 387-415.

Beechey, M., Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2009), "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis when Interest Rates Are Near Integrated", Journal of Banking and Finance 33 (5), 934-943.

Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2009), "Does Money Still Matter for U.S. Output?", Economics Letters 102 (3), 143-146.

Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2008), "A Bayesian VAR with Informative Steady-State Priors for the Australian Economy", Economic Record 84 (267), 449-465.

Österholm, P. and Zettelmeyer, J. (2008), "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America", IMF Staff Papers 55 (4), 595-623.

Österholm, P. (2008), “Can Forecasting Performance Be Improved by Considering the Steady State? An Application to Swedish Inflation and Interest Rate”, Journal of Forecasting 27 (1), 41-51.

Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2006), “The Informational Value of Unemployment Statistics: A Note on the Time Series Properties of Participation Rates”, Economics Letters 92 (3), 428-433.



3rd Örebro University and Kommuninvest workshop: Financial Econometrics, 11th to 12th of November, 2019

2nd Örebro University and Kommuninvest workshop: Predicting Asset Returns, 13th to 14th of November, 2018

Örebro University and Kommuninvest workshop: Interest rates after the financial crisis, 3rd to 4th of October, 2017

Research Projects

Research Teams



Articles in journals |  Collections (editor) |  Manuscripts | 

Articles in journals

Hjalmarsson, E. & Österholm, P. (2017). Households’ mortgage-rate expectations: more realistic than at first glance?. Penning- och valutapolitik (2), 56-63.
Stockhammar, P. & Österholm, P. (2017). The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies. Open Economies Review, 28 (2), 347-368.
Gustafsson, P. , Stockhammar, P. & Österholm, P. (2016). Macroeconomic effects of a decline in housing prices in Sweden. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38 (2), 242-255.
Beechey, M. & Österholm, P. (2014). Central bank forecasts of policy interest rates: An evaluation of the first years. Economic notes - Monte dei Paschi di Siena, 43 (1), 63-78.
Gustavsson, M. & Österholm, P. (2014). Does the labor-income process contain a unit root?: Evidence from individual-specific time series. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 47, 152-167.
Antipin, J. , Boumediene, F. J. & Österholm, P. (2014). Forecasting Inflation Using Constant Gain Least Squares. Australian Economic Papers, 53 (1-2), 2-15.
Beechey, M. & Österholm, P. (2014). Policy interest-rate expectations in Sweden: a forecast evaluation. Applied Economics Letters, 21 (14), 984-991.
Österholm, P. (2014). Survey data and short-term forecasts of Swedish GDP growth. Applied Economics Letters, 21 (2), 135-139.
Jonsson, T. & Österholm, P. (2012). The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. Empirical Economics, 42 (1), 79-94.
Beechey, M. & Österholm, P. (2012). The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence. The International Journal of Central Banking, 8 (3), 55-86.
Dale, S. , Orphanides, A. & Österholm, P. (2011). Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction. The International Journal of Central Banking, 7 (2), 3-39.
Jonsson, T. & Österholm, P. (2011). The forecasting properties of survey-based wage-growth expectations. Economics Letters, 113 (3), 276-281.
Beechey, M. & Österholm, P. (2010). Forecasting inflation in an inflation-targeting regime: A role for informative steady-state priors. International Journal of Forecasting, 26 (2), 248-264.
Österholm, P. (2010). The effect on the Swedish real economy of the financial crisis. Applied Financial Economics, 20 (4), 265-274.
Österholm, P. (2010). Unemployment and Labour-Force Participation in Sweden. Economics Letters, 106 (3), 205-208.
Berger, H. & Österholm, P. (2009). Does money still matter for U.S. output?. Economics Letters, 102 (3), 143-146.
Österholm, P. (2009). Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 111 (2), 387-415.
Beechey, M. , Hjalmarsson, E. & Österholm, P. (2009). Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33 (5), 934-943.
Beechey, M. & Österholm, P. (2008). Revisiting the uncertain unit root in GDP and CPI: Testing for non-linear trend reversion. Economics Letters, 100 (2), 221-223.
Österholm, P. (2005). The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?. Bulletin of Economic Research, 57 (3), 217-247.

Collections (editor)

Hultkrantz, L. (ed.) & Österholm, P. (ed.) (2017). Marknad och politik (12ed.). Lund: Studentlitteratur AB.